In this midyear outlook edition of The Glass Half Full, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down Carson’s newly released 2026 midyear outlook, “Still Riding the Wave.”
Coming into the year, Carson set a 12-15% total return target for the S&P 500. At the midway mark, the index is up roughly 10-11%, and rather than turning cautious, Ryan and Sonu are raising their full-year target to 15-18%, keeping bonds at 3-5%. The reasoning centers on several waves still building: record earnings and margin expansion, a labor market that’s quietly turned a corner, and AI capex that’s morphed from a market story into a macro one. AI-related business investment has driven more than 45% of average quarterly GDP growth over the last five quarters, with company capex guidance jumping from roughly $500 billion to more than $700 billion this year and a projected $900 billion next year.
Key Takeaways
- Carson Group raised its 2026 S&P 500 total return target from 12-15% to 15-18% at the midyear mark, keeping the bond target at 3-5%, citing continued economic and earnings momentum.
- AI capex has become a macro story, not just a market one: AI-related business investment has driven over 45% of average quarterly GDP growth for five straight quarters, with company spending guidance rising from ~$500B to over $700B this year and a projected $900B next year.
- The labor market has turned a corner, with average job growth accelerating from about 10,000 to 110,000 per month and unemployment falling to 4.2%, supporting consumer income and spending.
- Despite widespread hike chatter, Ryan and Sonu don’t see enough votes on the Fed committee to raise rates, framing a policy pause amid elevated inflation as effectively dovish and a tailwind for markets.
Jump to:
0:00 — Momentum and New Market Targets
2:28 — Why AI Is a Macro Wave
5:14 — Capex Boom and Earnings Surge
7:22 — Labor Market Turning Stronger
8:42 — Inflationary Growth and Fed Pause
10:40 — Volatility Ahead and How We Respond
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
The views stated in this podcast are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, or CWM, LLC. and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Wealth Services LLC.
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